Seasonal Climate Watch: March to July 2022
[{“type”:”text”,”content”:”The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for the north-east of the country and below-normal rainfall for the south-west during mid-autumn (MAM) through to early-winter (MJJ). Temperatures are expected to be quite variable during the coming season, however, most of the forecasts indicate mostly above-normal temperatures over the central and north-eastern parts and below-normal temperatures over the south-west.nnThe South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor the weather and climatic conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season.nn#### SAWS prediction systemnn**Ocean-atmosphere global climate model**nnSAWS is currently recognised by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF). This is owing to its local numerical modelling efforts, which involve coupling of both the atmosphere and ocean components to form a fully-interactive coupled modelling system, named the SAWS Coupled Model (SCM), the first of its kind in both South Africa and the region. Below is the first season (March-April-May) predictions for rainfall (Figure 1) and average temperature (Figure 2).”,”position”:0,”id”:”yTCmypFNtYXrWTlA”},{“type”:”image”,”content”:”https://agrisaonline.com/images/674″,”position”:1,”id”:”N4PrnKJH5Fgj22GW”},{“type”:”text”,”content”:”*Figure 1: March-April–May (2022) global prediction for total rainfall probabilities.*”,”position”:2,”id”:”VaEVw4hgYsiV2nEd”},{“type”:”image”,”content”:”https://agrisaonline.com/images/675″,”position”:3,”id”:”mq7lnHtiHXo0i6PA”},{“type”:”text”,”content”:”*Figure 2: March-April-May (2022) global prediction for average temperature probabilities.*”,”position”:4,”id”:”2Ql293p10jIvliAe”}]