Seasonal Climate Watch August to December 2022
[{“type”:”text”,”content”:”The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates below-normal rainfall for the south-western parts of the country during early- and mid-spring (Aug-Sep-Oct and Sep-Oct-Nov), with above- normal rainfall expected elsewhere. Late-spring is expected to have above-normal rainfall countrywide, with significant rainfall expected over the north-eastern parts of the country as we move to the summer months. Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above-normal for most of the country.nnThe South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor the weather and climatic conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season.nn#### South African Weather Service Prediction System nn**Ocean-Atmosphere Global Climate Model**
nSAWS is currently recognised by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF). This is owing to its local numerical modelling efforts, which involve the coupling of the atmosphere and ocean components to form a fully-interactive coupled modelling system, named the SAWS Coupled Model (SCM). This model is the first of its kind in South Africa and the southern African region. Below are the first season (August-September- October) predictions for rainfall (Figure 1) and average temperature (Figure 2).”,”position”:0,”id”:”SR3PT2CDG6Y6i6LF”},{“type”:”image”,”content”:”https://agrisaonline.com/images/831″,”position”:1,”id”:”Lw5Srlw2R7HVfpCV”},{“type”:”text”,”content”:”*Figure 1: August-September-October (2022) global prediction for total rainfall probabilities.*”,”position”:2,”id”:”TuuB2LXBar4BMQNK”},{“type”:”image”,”content”:”https://agrisaonline.com/images/832″,”position”:3,”id”:”615gu172piPBGHtW”},{“type”:”text”,”content”:”*Figure 2: August-September-October (2022) global prediction for average temperature probabilities.*nn**Seasonal Forecasts for South Africa from the SAWS OAGCM**
nThe above-mentioned global forecasting systemsu2019 forecasts are combined with the GFDL-SPEAR and COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4 systems (part of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble System) for South Africa, as issued with the July 2022 initial conditions, and are presented below for South Africa.”,”position”:4,”id”:”Aoj3GG7mDNDdNSyE”}]