Seasonal climate watch: August to December 2021
[{“type”:”text”,”content”:”As we move towards the spring and summer season, ENSO starts playing an important role in our summer rainfall. As such, the increased likelihood of a weak La Niu00f1a during early summer is expected to be favourable for above-normal rainfall in that period. nnThe multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly above-normal rainfall for the north-eastern half of the country throughout the spring to early summer seasons (ASO, SON and OND), whereas the south-western half, which falls outside the parts which receive summer rainfall, is mostly expected to receive below-normal rainfall. Above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures are expected across the country.nnThe South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.nn#### SAWS prediction system nn***Ocean-atmosphere global climate model***nnSAWS is currently recognised by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF). This is owing to its local numerical modelling efforts which involve coupling of both the atmosphere and ocean components to form a fully-interactive coupled modelling system, named the SAWS Coupled Model (SCM), the first of its kind in both South Africa and the region. Below are the first season (August-September-October) predictions for rainfall (Figure 1) and average temperature (Figure 2).”,”position”:0,”id”:”uGdMPJgxAn4o5FqJ”}]