The world faces new, yet familiar risks
[{“type”:”text”,”content”:”The first years of this decade have heralded a particularly disruptive period in human history. The return to a u201cnew normalu201d following the COVID-19 pandemic was quickly disrupted by the outbreak of war in Ukraine, ushering in a new series of crises in food and energy u2013 triggering problems that decades of progress had sought to solve. As 2023 begins, the world faces risks that seem to be new but also eerily familiar. We have seen a return of u201colderu201d risks u2013 inflation, cost-of-living crises, trade wars, capital outflows from emerging markets, widespread social unrest, geopolitical confrontation and the spectre of nuclear warfare u2013 which few of this generationu2019s business leaders and public policy-makers have experienced. Relatively new developments in the global risks landscape are now amplifying these risks. These developments include unsustainable levels of debt, a new era of low growth, low global investment and de-globalization, a decline in human development after decades of progress, and rapid and unconstrained development of dual-use (civilian and military) technologies. Also amplifying the global risk landscape is the growing pressure of climate change impacts and ambitions in an ever-shrinking window for transition to a 1.5u00b0C world. Together, these are converging to shape a unique, uncertain and turbulent next decade.nnClimate mitigation and climate adaptation efforts are set up for a risky trade-off while nature collapses. Climate and environmental risks are the core focus of global risks perceptions over the next decade u2013 and are the risks for which we are seemingly the least prepared. The lack of impactful, concerted progress on climate targets has exposed the divergence between what is scientifically necessary to achieve net zero and what is politically feasible. Growing demands on public-and private-sector resources from other crises will reduce the speed and scale of mitigation efforts over the next two years, alongside insufficient progress towards the adaptation support required for those communities and countries increasingly affected by the impacts of climate change. As current crises divert resources from risks arising over the medium to longer term, the burdens on natural ecosystems will grow, given their still undervalued role in the global economy and overall planetary health. Nature loss links intrinsically with climate change u2013 a failure in one sphere will cascade into the other. Without significant policy change or investment, the interplay between climate change impacts, biodiversity loss, food security and natural resource consumption will accelerate ecosystem collapse, threaten food supplies and livelihoods in climate-vulnerable economies, amplify the effects of natural disasters, and limit further progress on climate mitigation.nnFood, fuel, and cost crises exacerbate societal vulnerabilities while declining investments in human development erode future resilience. Compounding crises are widening their impact across societies, hitting the livelihoods of a far broader section of the population, and destabilizing more national economies than the traditionally vulnerable communities and fragile states. Building on the most severe risks expected to impact in 2023 u2013 including the u201cenergy supply crisisu201d, u201crising inflation,u201d and u201cfood supply crisisu201d u2013 a global cost-of-living crisis is already being felt. Countries that can afford to do so are cushioning economic impacts, but many lower-income countries face multiple setbacks, such as debt, climate change and food security. The continued supply-side pressures risk turning the current cost-of-living crisis into a wider humanitarian crisis within the next two years in many import-dependent markets. As a result, associated social unrest and political instability will spread further than emerging markets while economic pressures continue to hollow out the middle-income bracket. Mounting citizen frustration at losses in human development and declining social mobility, combined with a widening gap in values and equality, pose an existential challenge to political systems globally. Over the next two years, the election of less centrist leaders and political polarization between economic superpowers may further reduce space for collective problem-solving, fracturing alliances and leading to a more volatile dynamic. With a crunch in public-sector funding and competing security concerns, our capacity to absorb the next global shock is shrinking. Over the next decade, fewer countries will have the fiscal headroom to invest in future growth, green technologies, education, care and health systems. The slow decay of public infrastructure and services in both developing and advanced markets may be relatively subtle, but accumulating impacts will be highly corrosive to the strength of human capital and development u2013 a critical mitigant to other global risks faced.nn[Click here to read the full report](https://agrisaonline.com/storage/files/wef-global-risk-report-2023.pdf)”,”position”:0,”id”:”XCnKw9jYjvW4lDVd”}]