Seasonal Climate Watch – February to April 2023
[{“type”:”text”,”content”:”The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country for all predicted seasons. Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.nnThe South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor the weather and climate conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season.nn#### South African Weather Service Prediction Systemnn**Ocean-Atmosphere Global Climate Model**nnSAWS is currently recognised by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF). This is owing to its local numerical modelling efforts, which involve coupling of both the atmosphere and ocean components to form a fully interactive coupled modelling system, named the SAWS Coupled Model (SCM), the first of its kind in both South Africa and the region. Below are the second season (February-March-April) predictions for rainfall (Figure 1) and average temperature (Figure 2).”,”position”:0,”id”:”DCUtLSJzQrOg3HPT”},{“type”:”image”,”content”:”https://agrisaonline.com/images/857″,”position”:1,”id”:”UL8BtVYPC1BoOeFY”},{“type”:”text”,”content”:”*Figure 1: February-March-April, FMA (2023) global prediction for total rainfall probabilities*”,”position”:2,”id”:”b9gAWukzT3H31lTl”},{“type”:”image”,”content”:”https://agrisaonline.com/images/864″,”position”:3,”id”:”JgqGdnB7UesTJlh1″},{“type”:”text”,”content”:”*Figure 2: February-March-April, FMA (2023) global prediction for average temperature probabilities*nn*Seasonal Forecasts for South Africa from the SAWS seasonal prediction system*nnThe above-mentioned global forecasting systemsu2019 forecasts are combined with the GFDL-SPEAR and COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4 systems (part of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble System) for South Africa, as issued with the January 2023 initial conditions, and are presented below:”,”position”:4,”id”:”bcA6p3tFQWZaK860″}]