Seasonal Climate Watch: January to May 2022
[{“type”:”text”,”content”:”The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly above-normal rainfall for the larger part of the country during the late-summer (JFM), through to the mid-autumn (MAM) season. Mostly above-normal minimum temperatures are expected across the country during late-summer and early-autumn (FMA), except for the south-western parts of the country during mid-autumn when below-normal minimum temperatures are expected. Mostly below-normal maximum temperatures are expected across the country during late-summer and early-autumn, except for the north-eastern parts of the country during mid-autumn when above-normal maximum temperatures are expected. nnThe South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor the weather and climatic conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.nn#### SAWS prediction systemnn**Ocean-atmosphere global climate model**
nSAWS is currently recognised by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF). This is owing to its local numerical modelling efforts which involve coupling of both the atmosphere and ocean components to form a fully-interactive coupled modelling system, named the SAWS Coupled Model (SCM), the first of its kind in both South Africa and the region. Below is the first season (January-February-March) predictions for rainfall (Figure 1) and average temperature (Figure 2).”,”position”:0,”id”:”m170AO9hmQDD0SgK”}]